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William D. Larson

Welcome to my personal webpage. I am a senior economist at the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The views on this website are my own and do not represent those of the FHFA.

My contact information and papers can be found here. Please let me know if you'd like to see any of my working papers, data, or programs.

My fields of specialization include: Urban Economics, Housing Finance, and Forecasting.

The focus of my current research includes: land and house price measurement, mortgage performance modelling, and the effects of transportation innovations on the urban form, energy consumption, and carbon emissions of cities.

For media inquiries: Please either contact me or FHFA's Office of Congressional Affairs and Communications at mediainquiries@fhfa.gov.

Some Recent Press Hits


Publications and Works in Progress


Regional Science and Urban Economics, Accepted, 2022, Urban Planning Policies and the Cost of Labor in Large Cities, with Weihua Zhao and Anthony Yezer.

Review of Finance, Accepted, 2022, A Quarter Century of Mortgage Risk, with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Benjamin Smith.

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Accepted, 2022, House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults, with Paul Carrillo and William Doerner.

International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, Forecasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19, with Tara Sinclair.

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021, The Price of Residential Land for Counties, ZIP codes, and Census Tracts in the United States, with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Jessica Shui.

Energy Economics, 2020, Effects of Land Use and Transportation Policies on the Spatial Distribution of Urban Energy Consumption in Brazil, with Andressa Lemes Proque, Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos, and Admir Antonio Betarelli Júnior.

Real Estate Economics, 2020, Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand, with Weihua Zhao.

Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2020, Self-Driving Cars and the City: Effects on Sprawl, Energy Consumption, and Housing Affordability, with Weihua Zhao.

Journal of Regional Science, 2020, An Empirical Examination of Shift‐share Instruments, with Dan Broxterman.

Nature: Sustainability, 2020, A benefit–cost analysis of floodplain land acquisition for U.S. flood damage reduction, with Johnson et al.

Financial Analysts Journal, 2019 Missing the Mark: Mortgage Asset Valuation Accuracy and Credit Modeling, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.

Real Estate Economics, 2018, Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.

Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2017, Local House Price Paths: Accelerations, Declines, and Recoveries, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.

Economic Inquiry, 2017, Telework: Urban Form, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications, with Weihua Zhao.

Real Estate Economics, 2015, Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands, with Paul Carrillo and Erik De Wit.

Journal of Urban Economics, 2015, The Energy Implications of City Size and Density, with Anthony Yezer.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, Population Matters When Modeling Hurricane Fatalities, with Laura Bakkensen.

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013, Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates, with Simon Johnson, Arvind Subramanian, and Chris Papageorgiou.

Journal of Urban Economics, 2012, Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer.

International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, 2012, Energy Consumption, Housing, and Urban Development Policy, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer; Susan Smith (editor).

Under Review

Land Valuation using Public Records and Kriging: Implications for Land versus Property Taxation in Cities, with Jessica Shui. Revise and resubmit, Journal of Housing Economics.

The Riskiness of Outstanding Mortgages in the United States, 1999 – 2019. Revise and resubmit, Real Estate Economics.

Work in Progress

Transaction Composition and House Price Index Measurement: Evidence from a Repeat-Sales Aggregation Index, with Justin Contat.

Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic , with Christos Makridis and Chad Redmer.

Completed Working Papers

The Social Costs of Interrupted Development, with Feng Liu

The Daily Microstructure of the Housing Market, with Peter Chinloy

Surviving a Hurricane: Urban Decline, Hurricane Expectations, and the Dynamics of Local Supply Shocks, with Kyle Hood

Forecasting Aggregates with Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2015-002

"Housing and Labor Market Dynamics in Growing Versus Declining Cities"

"New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States"

"A Land Valuation Framework for the FRB/BEA Integrated Macroeconomic Account"

Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2010-004


Program Committee: 2017, 2018 AREUEA Mid-year Meetings

Referee: AEJ: Policy, Journal of Urban Economics, Economic Inquiry, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Journal of Housing Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, Economic Letters, Eastern Economic Journal, Economic Development Quarterly, Journal of Macroeconomics

Press Hits

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts
     Suburbs House More Poor Americans Than 'Inner-Cities' - NBC News
     Actually, Many "Inner Cities" Are Doing Great - New York Times
     Americans are paying more to live in the very places they once abandoned - Washington Post
     How to Tell If a Home Price Index Is Useful - National Mortgage Market News
     Americans are paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Chicago Tribune
     Center-City Housing is Making a Comeback - The M Report
     More Affluent Americans Moving Into Cities, Making Them More Expensive - Consumerist
     Americans paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Keene Sentinel

The Energy Implications of City Size and Density:
     Energy Use in Cities: A New Model Simulating Growth and Land Use Policies - The Institute for International Economic Policy

New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States:
     National Parks Are Economic Engines Across America: Graphic Shows How - National Geographic, September 8, 2016
     America's Most (and Least) Valuable States - 24/7 Wall Street, June 3, 2015
     How Much Money Is America Worth? About $23 Trillion - Cheatsheet, May 16, 2015
     Study: Land in RI is second-most-valuable in the US - WPRI, Apr 28, 2015
     Fun Number: The US Is Worth $23 Trillion. Or, Why A Land Value Tax Won't Work - Forbes, Apr 23, 2015
     How Much Is the U.S. Worth? - Wall Street Journal, Apr 22, 2015
     New federal report shows land value estimates across US - Houston Chronicle, Apr 14, 2015
     The Real Role of Land Values in the United States - CityLab (the Atlantic), Apr 10, 2015

Baseball Statistics and Forecasting

Moonshot: Predicting Uncertainty, with Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus, January 16, 2015.

Evaluating 2013 Projections, Fangraphs, 2014.

Evaluating 2012 Projections, Fangraphs, 2013.

Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections, Fangraphs, 2012,

Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2012.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2, Fangraphs, 2011.

Projecting uncertainty, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2011.

AEI/CRN Conference, 2016

updated 8/17/21