Some Recent Press Hits
Publications and Works in Progress
Financial Analysts Journal, Accepted, Missing the Mark: Mortgage Asset Valuation Accuracy and Credit Modeling, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.
Real Estate Economics, 2018, Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.
Real Estate Economics, 2017, Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand, with Weihua Zhao.
Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2017, Local House Price Paths: Accelerations, Declines, and Recoveries, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin.
Economic Inquiry, 2017, Telework: Urban Form, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications, with Weihua Zhao.
Real Estate Economics, 2015, Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands, with Paul Carrillo and Erik De Wit.
Journal of Urban Economics, 2015, The Energy Implications of City Size and Density, with Anthony Yezer.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, Population Matters When Modeling Hurricane Fatalities, with Laura Bakkensen.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013, Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates, with Simon Johnson, Arvind Subramanian, and Chris Papageorgiou.
Journal of Urban Economics, 2012, Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer.
International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, 2012, Energy Consumption, Housing, and Urban Development Policy, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer. In Susan Smith (editor).
Self-Driving Cars and the City: Long-Run Effects on Land Use, Welfare, and the Environment, with Weihua Zhao
An Examination of Industry Mix Demand Indicators: The Bartik Instrument at Twenty-Five, with Dan Broxterman. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Regional Science
The Social Costs of Interrupted Development, with Feng Liu
Work in Progress
House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults, with Paul Carrillo and William Doerner
Land Price Index Development, with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Jessica Shui
Mortgage Risk Indicators, with Morris Davis, Jesse Gregory, Stephen Oliner, and Benjamin Smith
Completed Working Papers
The Daily Microstructure of the Housing Market, with Peter Chinloy
Surviving a Hurricane: Urban Decline, Hurricane Expectations, and the Dynamics of Local Supply Shocks, with Kyle Hood
Forecasting Aggregates with Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2015-002
"Housing and Labor Market Dynamics in Growing Versus Declining Cities"
"New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States"
"A Land Valuation Framework for the FRB/BEA Integrated Macroeconomic Account"
Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2010-004
ServiceProgram Committee: 2017, 2018 AREUEA Mid-year Meetings
Referee: AEJ: Policy, Journal of Urban Economics, Economic Inquiry, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Journal of Housing Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, Economic Letters, Eastern Economic Journal, Economic Development Quarterly, Journal of Macroeconomics
Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts
Suburbs House More Poor Americans Than 'Inner-Cities' - NBC News
Actually, Many "Inner Cities" Are Doing Great - New York Times
Americans are paying more to live in the very places they once abandoned - Washington Post
How to Tell If a Home Price Index Is Useful - National Mortgage Market News
Americans are paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Chicago Tribune
Center-City Housing is Making a Comeback - The M Report
More Affluent Americans Moving Into Cities, Making Them More Expensive - Consumerist
Americans paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Keene Sentinel
The Energy Implications of City Size and Density:
Energy Use in Cities: A New Model Simulating Growth and Land Use Policies - The Institute for International Economic Policy
New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States:
National Parks Are Economic Engines Across America: Graphic Shows How - National Geographic, September 8, 2016
America's Most (and Least) Valuable States - 24/7 Wall Street, June 3, 2015
How Much Money Is America Worth? About $23 Trillion - Cheatsheet, May 16, 2015
Study: Land in RI is second-most-valuable in the US - WPRI, Apr 28, 2015
Fun Number: The US Is Worth $23 Trillion. Or, Why A Land Value Tax Won't Work - Forbes, Apr 23, 2015
How Much Is the U.S. Worth? - Wall Street Journal, Apr 22, 2015
New federal report shows land value estimates across US - Houston Chronicle, Apr 14, 2015
The Real Role of Land Values in the United States - CityLab (the Atlantic), Apr 10, 2015
Baseball Statistics and ForecastingBaseball Projection Project:
A little crowdsourced baseball forecasting website I put together a few years ago.
Moonshot: Predicting Uncertainty, with Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus, January 16, 2015.
Evaluating 2013 Projections, Fangraphs, 2014.
Evaluating 2012 Projections, Fangraphs, 2013.
Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections, Fangraphs, 2012,
Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2012.
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1, Fangraphs, 2011.
Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2, Fangraphs, 2011.
Projecting uncertainty, Fangraphs, 2011.
Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2011.