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William D. Larson

Welcome to my webpage. I am a senior economist at the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The views on this website are my own and do not represent those of the FHFA.

My contact information and papers can be found here. Please contact me if you'd like to see any of my working papers, data, or programs.

My fields of specialization include: urban economics, housing economics, and real estate finance and economics.

The focus of my current research includes: land and house price measurement, mortgage collateral risk modelling, and the effects of transportation innovations on the urban form, energy consumption, and carbon emissions of cities.

I recently taught: ECON/STAT 2123, Introduction to Econometrics, in the Fall 2017 semester at the George Washington University.

Recent and Upcoming Press Hits and Presentations:

"Self-Driving Cars and the City: Long-Run Effects on Land Use, Welfare, and the Environment," at the "Cities and the Environment" workshop at the University of Potsdam in Potsdam, Germany, July 2018

Discussions, ASSA Annual Meetings:
    Alex Anas' "The Cost of Congestion and the Benefits of Congestion Pricing in the Greater Los Angeles Region", January 2018
    Thom Malone and Chris Redfearn's "Think Globally, Aggregate Locally: Index Consistency in the Presence Asymmetric Appreciation", January 2018

"New Land Price Indices and Stylized Facts:"
    Research Seminar, Federal Housing Finance Agency, August, 2017
    Research Seminar, National Association of Realtors, August, 2017
    Research Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, September, 2017
    Research Seminar, Freddie Mac, October, 2017

"Historical Mortgage Risk Indicators:"
    AEI/CRN Housing Risk Conference, AEI, October 2017


Publications and Works in Progress


Housing Finance and Real Estate

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin (Accepted, Real Estate Economics)

Oil Prices and Urban Housing Demand, with Weihua Zhao (Accepted, Real Estate Economics)

Local House Price Growth Accelerations, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin (Accepted, Real Estate Finance and Economics)

Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands, with Paul Carrillo and Erik De Wit, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 43, No. 3, 2015.

Urban Economics

Telework: Urban Form, Energy Consumption, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications, with Weihua Zhao, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 55, No. 2, 2017.

The Energy Implications of City Size and Density, with Anthony Yezer, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 90, 2015.

Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 72, No. 2/3, 2012.

Energy Consumption, Housing, and Urban Development Policy, with Feng Liu and Anthony Yezer. In Susan Smith (editor), International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, (pp. 80-86), Elsevier, San Diego, 2012.

Other Topics

Population Matters When Modeling Hurricane Fatalities, with Laura Bakkensen, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 50, 2014.

Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates, with Simon Johnson, Arvind Subramanian, and Chris Papageorgiou, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2013.

Under Review

Self-Driving Cars and the City: Long-Run Effects on Land Use, Welfare, and the Environment, with Weihua Zhao

Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling, with William Doerner and Alex Bogin, Revise and resubmit, Financial Analysts Journal

An Examination of Industry Mix Demand Indicators: The Bartik Instrument at Twenty-Five, with Dan Broxterman

The Social Costs of Interrupted Development, with Feng Liu

Work in Progress

Transaction Price Anomalies: Mortgage Performance and Price Index Consequences, with Paul Carrillo and William Doerner

Land Price Index Development, with Morris Davis, Stephen Oliner, and Jessica Shui

Mortgage Risk Indicators, with Morris Davis, Jesse Gregory, and Stephen Oliner

The Daily Microstructure of the Housing Market, with Peter Chinloy

Other Papers

Surviving a Hurricane: Urban Decline, Hurricane Expectations, and the Dynamics of Local Supply Shocks, with Kyle Hood

Forecasting Aggregates with Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2015-002

"Housing and Labor Market Dynamics in Growing Versus Declining Cities"

"New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States"

"A Land Valuation Framework for the FRB/BEA Integrated Macroeconomic Account"

Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment GWU Research Program on Forecasting Working Paper Series, 2010-004


Program Committee: 2017, 2018 AREUEA Mid-year Meetings

Referee: AEJ: Policy, Journal of Urban Economics, Economic Inquiry, Real Estate Economics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Journal of Regional Science, Journal of Housing Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, Economic Letters, Eastern Economic Journal, Economic Development Quarterly, Journal of Macroeconomics

Press Hits

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts
     Suburbs House More Poor Americans Than 'Inner-Cities' - NBC News
     Actually, Many "Inner Cities" Are Doing Great - New York Times
     Americans are paying more to live in the very places they once abandoned - Washington Post
     How to Tell If a Home Price Index Is Useful - National Mortgage Market News
     Americans are paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Chicago Tribune
     Center-City Housing is Making a Comeback - The M Report
     More Affluent Americans Moving Into Cities, Making Them More Expensive - Consumerist
     Americans paying more and more to live in the same places they once abandoned - Keene Sentinel

The Energy Implications of City Size and Density:
     Energy Use in Cities: A New Model Simulating Growth and Land Use Policies - The Institute for International Economic Policy

New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States:
     National Parks Are Economic Engines Across America: Graphic Shows How - National Geographic, September 8, 2016
     America's Most (and Least) Valuable States - 24/7 Wall Street, June 3, 2015
     How Much Money Is America Worth? About $23 Trillion - Cheatsheet, May 16, 2015
     Study: Land in RI is second-most-valuable in the US - WPRI, Apr 28, 2015
     Fun Number: The US Is Worth $23 Trillion. Or, Why A Land Value Tax Won't Work - Forbes, Apr 23, 2015
     How Much Is the U.S. Worth? - Wall Street Journal, Apr 22, 2015
     New federal report shows land value estimates across US - Houston Chronicle, Apr 14, 2015
     The Real Role of Land Values in the United States - CityLab (the Atlantic), Apr 10, 2015

Baseball Statistics and Forecasting

Baseball Projection Project:
A little crowdsourced baseball forecasting website I put together a few years ago.

Moonshot: Predicting Uncertainty, with Rob Arthur, Baseball Prospectus, January 16, 2015.

Evaluating 2013 Projections, Fangraphs, 2014.

Evaluating 2012 Projections, Fangraphs, 2013.

Comparing 2011 Hitter Projections, Fangraphs, 2012,

Comparing 2011 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2012.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 1, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Hitter Projections, part 2, Fangraphs, 2011.

Projecting uncertainty, Fangraphs, 2011.

Comparing 2010 Pitcher Projections, Fangraphs, 2011.

AEI/CRN Conference, 2016

updated 11/29/17